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How will China’s temperature change between 2009 and 2100?

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  1. The green, blue and red lines show projected future temperatures from 2006 to 2100, according to three different emission scenarios– green (low), blue (medium) and red (high). The shading around each line shows the range of temperature that might be possible with each emission scenario.
  2. The coloured bars summarise the range of temperatures for each emissions scenario.
  3. All scenarios show future temperatures will be warmer.
  4. Mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.3°C to 3.5°C by the 2060s and 1.7°C to 5.5°C by the 2090s.
  5. Projected rate of warming is greatest in winter (DJF) with increases of 2.0°C to 6.4°C projected by the 2090s.
  6. Projected increases are most rapid in northern and western regions of China,with projected increases in annual mean temperature of around 2°-6°C in the northern regions and the Tibet Plateau (regions A, B, C and F), but more moderate increases of around 1.5°‐5°C in regions D and E.
  7. The black line shows the actual temperature anomaly for each year from 1960 to2000. This is the difference in temperature between the year’s recorded temperature and the average of all years between 1970 and 1999. If the anomaly is positive, that year was warmer than the 1970-1999 average. If it is negative, that year was colder than the 1970-1999 average.
  8. The brown line shows past temperature anomalies as produced by a computer model with the brown shading showing the range of temperatures produced by the model.
  9. Mean annual temperature has increased by 0.8°C since 1960, average rate of 0.18°C per decade. Rate of 0.36°C per decade.
  10. Temperature increases are particularly rapid in the Northern regions in the Winter (DJF)